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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
5
6
1
1
18
20
1
2
23
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
2
39
42
1
1
18
20
2
3
57
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
4
19
23
4
4
69
77
4
8
88
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
3
63
68
2
2
29
32
3
5
92
100

hitrate: 0.731 hitrate: 0.323
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 0.87
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 14.00 0.35
Heidke skill score: 0.596 Heidke skill score: -0.016
true Heidke skill score: 0.108 true Heidke skill score: -0.010
Kuipers skill score: 0.596 Kuipers skill score: -0.016
true Kuipers skill score: 0.155 true Kuipers skill score: -0.045
threat score:
0.000 0.143 0.720
threat score:
0.000 0.047 0.305
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.082 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.001 -0.010
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.783
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.316
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.833 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.952 0.100
samples: 26 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 41.94 %coverage: 100.00