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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
0
1
7
8
1
1
12
14
1
2
23
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
1
2
41
44
1
1
12
14
2
3
57
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
15
15
0
4
27
31
4
4
46
54
4
8
88
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
6
6
2
3
66
71
2
2
19
23
3
5
92
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 4.00 0.61
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 14.67 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.161
true Heidke skill score: -0.012 true Heidke skill score: -0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.161
true Kuipers skill score: -0.028 true Kuipers skill score: -0.120
threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.480
threat score:
0.000 0.044 0.203
equitable threat score:
-0.032 0.046 -0.030
equitable threat score:
-0.022 -0.003 -0.019
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.522
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.875 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.955 0.143
samples: 26 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 41.94 %coverage: 100.00