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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
15
15
0
2
8
10
1
0
0
1
1
2
23
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
15
15
1
3
42
46
1
0
0
1
2
3
57
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
58
58
0
8
31
38
4
0
0
4
4
8
88
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
24
24
2
5
68
74
2
0
0
2
3
5
92
100

hitrate: 0.077 hitrate: 0.048
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
15.00 5.00 0.04
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.50 15.33 0.02
Heidke skill score: -0.385 Heidke skill score: -0.427
true Heidke skill score: -0.010 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: -0.385 Kuipers skill score: -0.427
true Kuipers skill score: -0.042 true Kuipers skill score: -0.067
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.065 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.037 0.133 -0.038
equitable threat score:
-0.029 0.018 -0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.800 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.935 1.000
samples: 26 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 41.94 %coverage: 100.00