CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
0
2
5
7
0
0
7
7
1
3
14
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
0
6
45
51
0
0
7
7
1
7
54
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
11
22
0
11
28
39
0
0
39
39
6
17
78
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
3
6
0
10
73
82
0
0
11
11
2
11
87
100

hitrate: 0.556 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 2.33 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 7.29 0.13
Heidke skill score: 0.333 Heidke skill score: -0.161
true Heidke skill score: 0.284 true Heidke skill score: 0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.333 Kuipers skill score: -0.161
true Kuipers skill score: 0.483 true Kuipers skill score: 0.147
threat score:
0.250 0.250 0.500
threat score:
0.250 0.115 0.130
equitable threat score:
0.206 0.122 0.182
equitable threat score:
0.238 0.005 0.019
probability of detection:
1.000 0.667 0.500
probability of detection:
1.000 0.857 0.130
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.714 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.882 0.000
samples: 18 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 29.03 %coverage: 100.00