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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
3
5
1
1
5
7
0
0
6
6
1
3
14
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
3
5
1
5
45
51
0
0
6
6
1
7
54
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
17
28
6
6
28
39
0
0
33
33
6
17
78
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
5
8
2
8
73
82
0
0
10
10
2
11
87
100

hitrate: 0.389 hitrate: 0.177
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 2.33 0.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 7.29 0.11
Heidke skill score: 0.083 Heidke skill score: -0.234
true Heidke skill score: 0.075 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: 0.083 Kuipers skill score: -0.234
true Kuipers skill score: 0.136 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.429
threat score:
0.000 0.094 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.049 -0.021 0.143
equitable threat score:
-0.014 -0.016 0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.429
probability of detection:
0.000 0.714 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.857 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.902 0.000
samples: 18 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 29.03 %coverage: 100.00