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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
0
1
8
9
1
1
0
2
1
3
14
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
0
5
48
53
1
1
0
2
1
7
54
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
33
39
0
6
44
50
6
6
0
11
6
17
78
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
10
11
0
8
77
85
2
2
0
3
2
11
87
100

hitrate: 0.056 hitrate: 0.081
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.00 3.00 0.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.00 7.57 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.417 Heidke skill score: -0.379
true Heidke skill score: -0.168 true Heidke skill score: -0.052
Kuipers skill score: -0.417 Kuipers skill score: -0.379
true Kuipers skill score: -0.373 true Kuipers skill score: -0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.051 -0.053 -0.108
equitable threat score:
-0.014 -0.020 -0.032
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.714 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.889 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.906 1.000
samples: 18 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 29.03 %coverage: 100.00