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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
5
2
8
3
0
5
8
4
5
7
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
12
42
55
3
0
5
8
4
12
47
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
31
13
50
19
0
31
50
25
31
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
19
67
87
5
0
8
13
6
19
75
100

hitrate: 0.625 hitrate: 0.270
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.60 1.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.58 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.438 Heidke skill score: -0.095
true Heidke skill score: 0.400 true Heidke skill score: 0.012
Kuipers skill score: 0.438 Kuipers skill score: -0.095
true Kuipers skill score: 0.386 true Kuipers skill score: 0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.625 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.218 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.455 0.231
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.034 -0.022
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.714
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.106
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.375 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.782 0.375
samples: 16 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 25.40 %coverage: 100.00