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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
4
5
1
4
1
6
3
0
0
3
4
5
5
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
4
5
1
11
43
55
3
0
0
3
4
12
47
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
29
36
7
29
7
43
21
0
0
21
29
36
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
6
8
2
17
68
87
5
0
0
5
6
19
75
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.175
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 1.20 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 4.58 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.238
true Heidke skill score: -0.069 true Heidke skill score: -0.041
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.238
true Kuipers skill score: -0.069 true Kuipers skill score: -0.080
threat score:
0.000 0.571 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.196 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.189 0.382 -0.155
equitable threat score:
-0.037 0.012 -0.047
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.917 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.800 1.000
samples: 14 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 22.22 %coverage: 100.00