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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
4
9
3
0
1
4
0
0
0
0
4
4
5
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
4
9
3
8
43
54
0
0
0
0
4
12
47
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
31
31
69
23
0
8
31
0
0
0
0
31
31
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
6
14
5
13
68
86
0
0
0
0
6
19
75
100

hitrate: 0.077 hitrate: 0.143
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.25 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.25 4.50 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.385 Heidke skill score: -0.286
true Heidke skill score: -0.333 true Heidke skill score: -0.036
Kuipers skill score: -0.385 Kuipers skill score: -0.286
true Kuipers skill score: -0.348 true Kuipers skill score: -0.073
threat score:
0.083 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.083 0.138 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.192 -0.182 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.038 -0.048 0.000
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.250 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.852 0.000
samples: 13 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 20.63 %coverage: 100.00