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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
1
1
0
2
4
4
3
11
9
5
3
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
9
25
15
49
4
4
3
11
17
29
18
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
24
0
0
24
6
6
0
12
24
24
18
65
53
29
18
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
0
6
14
39
23
77
6
6
5
17
27
45
28
100

hitrate: 0.471 hitrate: 0.500
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 0.40 3.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 1.69 0.61
Heidke skill score: 0.206 Heidke skill score: 0.250
true Heidke skill score: 0.271 true Heidke skill score: 0.150
Kuipers skill score: 0.206 Kuipers skill score: 0.250
true Kuipers skill score: 0.328 true Kuipers skill score: 0.137
threat score:
0.444 0.167 0.273
threat score:
0.235 0.472 0.115
equitable threat score:
0.274 0.076 0.117
equitable threat score:
0.184 0.091 -0.004
probability of detection:
0.444 0.200 1.000
probability of detection:
0.235 0.862 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.727
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.490 0.727
samples: 17 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 26.56 %coverage: 100.00