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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
2
0
8
1
1
1
3
1
2
0
3
8
5
1
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
2
0
8
10
25
18
53
1
2
0
3
17
29
18
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
43
14
0
57
7
7
7
21
7
14
0
21
57
36
7
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
3
0
13
16
39
28
83
2
3
0
5
27
45
28
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.484
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.60 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 1.83 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.227
true Heidke skill score: 0.140 true Heidke skill score: 0.108
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.227
true Kuipers skill score: 0.151 true Kuipers skill score: 0.097
threat score:
0.600 0.143 0.000
threat score:
0.316 0.439 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.263 -0.012 -0.057
equitable threat score:
0.230 0.030 -0.042
probability of detection:
0.750 0.200 0.000
probability of detection:
0.353 0.862 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.667 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.528 1.000
samples: 14 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 21.88 %coverage: 100.00