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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
4
2
0
6
2
2
0
4
7
5
0
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
14
26
18
58
2
2
0
4
17
29
18
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
8
0
17
33
17
0
50
17
17
0
33
58
42
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
22
41
28
91
3
3
0
6
27
45
28
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.422
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 1.20 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 2.00 0.22
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.133
true Heidke skill score: -0.080 true Heidke skill score: -0.026
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.133
true Kuipers skill score: -0.114 true Kuipers skill score: -0.023
threat score:
0.125 0.222 0.000
threat score:
0.056 0.426 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.024 -0.077 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.027 -0.008 -0.054
probability of detection:
0.143 0.400 0.000
probability of detection:
0.059 0.897 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.667 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.552 1.000
samples: 12 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 18.75 %coverage: 100.00