CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
5
4
2
11
7
4
2
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
10
26
53
5
4
2
11
22
14
28
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
0
0
15
38
31
15
85
54
31
15
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
16
41
83
8
6
3
17
34
22
44
100

hitrate: 0.154 hitrate: 0.188
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.50 5.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.79 0.39
Heidke skill score: -0.269 Heidke skill score: -0.219
true Heidke skill score: -0.029 true Heidke skill score: -0.093
Kuipers skill score: -0.269 Kuipers skill score: -0.219
true Kuipers skill score: -0.040 true Kuipers skill score: -0.107
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.182
threat score:
0.000 0.175 0.054
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.114 0.033
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.035 -0.087
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.714 0.071
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.818
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.811 0.818
samples: 13 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 20.31 %coverage: 100.00