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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
2
3
1
6
1
1
0
2
5
4
1
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
19
13
28
60
1
1
0
2
22
14
28
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
0
0
20
20
30
10
60
10
10
0
20
50
40
10
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
30
20
44
94
2
2
0
3
34
22
44
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.234
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 1.50 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 4.29 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.148
true Heidke skill score: 0.219 true Heidke skill score: 0.006
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.148
true Kuipers skill score: 0.241 true Kuipers skill score: 0.008
threat score:
0.400 0.429 0.000
threat score:
0.091 0.213 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.250 0.130 -0.071
equitable threat score:
0.062 -0.003 -0.030
probability of detection:
0.400 0.750 0.000
probability of detection:
0.091 0.929 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.783 1.000
samples: 10 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 15.62 %coverage: 100.00