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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
0
1
0
1
1
3
1
5
5
4
1
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
17
11
27
55
1
3
1
5
22
14
28
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
0
0
40
0
10
0
10
10
30
10
50
50
40
10
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
0
6
27
17
42
86
2
5
2
8
34
22
44
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 0.25 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 3.93 0.18
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: 0.437 true Heidke skill score: 0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: 0.534 true Kuipers skill score: 0.010
threat score:
0.800 0.250 0.200
threat score:
0.182 0.190 0.031
equitable threat score:
0.667 0.167 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.127 -0.022 -0.040
probability of detection:
0.800 0.250 1.000
probability of detection:
0.182 0.786 0.036
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.800 0.800
samples: 10 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 15.62 %coverage: 100.00