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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
1
0
0
1
2
2
3
7
5
2
3
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
17
17
21
55
2
2
3
7
21
19
24
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
0
0
20
10
0
0
10
20
20
30
70
50
20
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
27
27
33
86
3
3
5
11
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.344
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 0.50 2.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.89 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.016
true Heidke skill score: 0.254 true Heidke skill score: 0.054
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.016
true Kuipers skill score: 0.274 true Kuipers skill score: 0.056
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.429
threat score:
0.095 0.298 0.107
equitable threat score:
0.250 -0.071 0.184
equitable threat score:
0.066 0.017 0.015
probability of detection:
0.400 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.095 0.895 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.691 0.571
samples: 10 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 15.62 %coverage: 100.00