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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
3
1
2
6
5
1
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
17
18
22
57
3
1
2
6
21
19
24
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
0
13
13
0
0
13
38
13
25
75
63
13
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
27
28
34
89
5
2
3
9
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 1.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 3.00 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.008
true Heidke skill score: 0.130 true Heidke skill score: 0.034
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.008
true Kuipers skill score: 0.176 true Kuipers skill score: 0.035
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.048 0.310 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.086 -0.067 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.033 0.026 -0.010
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.048 0.947 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.684 0.667
samples: 8 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00