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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
3
1
2
6
5
1
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
16
18
22
56
3
1
2
6
21
19
24
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
0
25
0
0
0
0
38
13
25
75
63
13
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
25
28
34
88
5
2
3
9
33
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.344
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.95 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.016
true Heidke skill score: 0.238 true Heidke skill score: 0.056
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.016
true Kuipers skill score: 0.294 true Kuipers skill score: 0.058
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.095 0.316 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.066 0.034 -0.010
probability of detection:
0.400 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.095 0.947 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.679 0.667
samples: 8 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00