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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
0
5
2
3
3
8
0
3
2
5
2
11
5
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
0
5
14
15
25
54
0
3
2
5
14
23
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
28
0
28
11
17
17
44
0
17
11
28
11
61
28
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
0
8
22
23
39
84
0
5
3
8
22
36
42
100

hitrate: 0.278 hitrate: 0.266
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.73 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.36 2.35 0.19
Heidke skill score: -0.083 Heidke skill score: -0.102
true Heidke skill score: -0.164 true Heidke skill score: -0.136
Kuipers skill score: -0.083 Kuipers skill score: -0.102
true Kuipers skill score: -0.190 true Kuipers skill score: -0.136
threat score:
0.000 0.188 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.242 0.067
equitable threat score:
-0.086 -0.170 0.092
equitable threat score:
-0.061 -0.103 -0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.273 0.400
probability of detection:
0.000 0.652 0.074
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.625 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.722 0.600
samples: 18 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 28.12 %coverage: 100.00