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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
0
5
1
3
2
6
0
1
1
2
2
8
3
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
0
5
13
18
26
57
0
1
1
2
14
23
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
31
0
38
8
23
15
46
0
8
8
15
15
62
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
0
8
20
28
41
89
0
2
2
3
22
36
42
100

hitrate: 0.385 hitrate: 0.312
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.75 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.36 2.48 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.077 Heidke skill score: -0.031
true Heidke skill score: 0.010 true Heidke skill score: -0.058
Kuipers skill score: 0.077 Kuipers skill score: -0.031
true Kuipers skill score: 0.011 true Kuipers skill score: -0.059
threat score:
0.167 0.273 0.250
threat score:
0.056 0.290 0.036
equitable threat score:
0.044 -0.095 0.152
equitable threat score:
-0.006 -0.060 0.006
probability of detection:
0.500 0.375 0.333
probability of detection:
0.071 0.783 0.037
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.500 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.684 0.500
samples: 13 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 20.31 %coverage: 100.00