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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
3
0
2
0
2
0
6
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
14
19
27
60
0
2
0
2
14
23
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
29
0
29
0
29
14
43
0
29
0
29
0
86
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
22
30
42
94
0
3
0
3
22
36
42
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.297
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.61 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.055
true Heidke skill score: -0.207 true Heidke skill score: -0.093
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.055
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.093
threat score:
0.000 0.286 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.297 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.129 -0.105
equitable threat score:
-0.028 -0.060 -0.030
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.826 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.683 1.000
samples: 7 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 10.94 %coverage: 100.00