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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
0
2
0
2
2
2
0
4
2
5
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
2
3
10
29
18
57
2
2
0
4
12
32
20
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
22
33
0
22
0
22
22
22
0
44
22
56
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
3
5
16
45
28
89
3
3
0
6
19
50
31
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.453
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.40 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 1.78 0.20
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: 0.180
true Heidke skill score: -0.105 true Heidke skill score: -0.039
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: 0.180
true Kuipers skill score: -0.125 true Kuipers skill score: -0.033
threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.483 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.154 0.229 -0.174
equitable threat score:
-0.039 0.016 -0.055
probability of detection:
0.000 0.400 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.906 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.491 1.000
samples: 9 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 14.06 %coverage: 100.00