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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
3
2
0
1
3
2
4
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
10
30
19
59
2
0
1
3
12
32
20
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
0
25
0
25
13
38
25
0
13
38
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
16
47
30
92
3
0
2
5
19
50
31
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.484
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.75 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 1.84 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.227
true Heidke skill score: 0.048 true Heidke skill score: 0.006
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.227
true Kuipers skill score: 0.050 true Kuipers skill score: 0.005
threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.492 0.045
equitable threat score:
-0.143 0.143 0.077
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.016 0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.050
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.492 0.667
samples: 8 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00