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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
2
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
2
7
10
29
18
57
0
0
0
0
12
32
20
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
43
29
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
29
43
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
3
11
16
45
28
89
0
0
0
0
19
50
31
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.484
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.50 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.58 1.78 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: 0.227
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.035
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: 0.227
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.030
threat score:
0.286 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.118 0.483 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.044 0.016 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.167 0.906 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.491 0.000
samples: 7 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 10.94 %coverage: 100.00