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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
1
4
0
1
0
1
3
2
2
7
3
6
3
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
1
4
10
27
16
53
3
2
2
7
13
32
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
8
33
0
8
0
8
25
17
17
58
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
2
6
16
42
25
83
5
3
3
11
20
50
30
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.453
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.17 2.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 1.66 0.37
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.180
true Heidke skill score: -0.029 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.180
true Kuipers skill score: -0.033 true Kuipers skill score: -0.010
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.466 0.083
equitable threat score:
-0.167 0.091 0.040
equitable threat score:
-0.050 0.016 -0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.167 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.844 0.105
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.491 0.714
samples: 12 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 18.75 %coverage: 100.00