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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
4
1
5
1
1
0
2
1
6
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
12
30
18
60
1
1
0
2
13
32
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
11
22
0
44
11
56
11
11
0
22
11
67
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
19
47
28
94
2
2
0
3
20
50
30
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.469
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.83 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 1.88 0.11
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: 0.203
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.030
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: 0.203
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.000 0.571 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.484 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.080 0.182 -0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.000 -0.029
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.200 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 1.000
samples: 9 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 14.06 %coverage: 100.00