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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
3
1
4
1
0
0
1
1
4
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
12
31
18
61
1
0
0
1
13
32
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
14
14
29
0
43
14
57
14
0
0
14
14
57
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
19
48
28
95
2
0
0
2
20
50
30
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.484
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 1.91 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.227
true Heidke skill score: 0.034 true Heidke skill score: -0.006
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.227
true Kuipers skill score: 0.036 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.000 0.600 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.105 0.263 -0.105
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.016 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.969 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.250 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.492 1.000
samples: 7 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 10.94 %coverage: 100.00