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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
0
2
2
4
0
1
6
7
2
4
9
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
1
12
40
53
0
1
6
7
3
14
47
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
7
7
27
0
13
13
27
0
7
40
47
13
27
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
2
6
2
19
63
83
0
2
9
11
5
22
73
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.312
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.00 0.78
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 3.79 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.031
true Heidke skill score: 0.457 true Heidke skill score: 0.065
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.031
true Kuipers skill score: 0.508 true Kuipers skill score: 0.117
threat score:
0.500 0.333 0.600
threat score:
0.400 0.218 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.423 0.189 0.310
equitable threat score:
0.377 0.009 0.020
probability of detection:
1.000 0.500 0.667
probability of detection:
0.667 0.857 0.128
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.774 0.143
samples: 15 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 23.44 %coverage: 100.00