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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
3
7
0
0
2
2
0
2
3
5
2
4
8
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
3
7
1
10
41
52
0
2
3
5
3
14
47
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
14
21
50
0
0
14
14
0
14
21
36
14
29
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
5
11
2
16
64
81
0
3
5
8
5
22
73
100

hitrate: 0.357 hitrate: 0.234
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.50 0.50 0.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.33 3.71 0.11
Heidke skill score: 0.036 Heidke skill score: -0.148
true Heidke skill score: 0.060 true Heidke skill score: -0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.036 Kuipers skill score: -0.148
true Kuipers skill score: 0.071 true Kuipers skill score: -0.014
threat score:
0.286 0.000 0.300
threat score:
0.250 0.179 0.061
equitable threat score:
0.167 -0.105 0.020
equitable threat score:
0.218 -0.031 -0.015
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.375
probability of detection:
0.667 0.714 0.064
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 1.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.808 0.400
samples: 14 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 21.88 %coverage: 100.00