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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
3
5
9
1
1
3
5
2
4
8
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
13
44
59
1
1
3
5
3
14
47
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
21
36
64
7
7
21
36
14
29
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
20
69
92
2
2
5
8
5
22
73
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.25 0.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.21 0.11
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: 0.067 true Heidke skill score: -0.012
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: 0.071 true Kuipers skill score: -0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.300
threat score:
0.000 0.217 0.061
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.058 0.020
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.002 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.375
probability of detection:
0.000 0.929 0.064
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.780 0.400
samples: 14 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 21.88 %coverage: 100.00