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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
8
9
0
0
2
2
0
3
2
5
0
4
12
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
8
9
0
5
45
50
0
3
2
5
0
9
55
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
50
56
0
0
13
13
0
19
13
31
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
13
14
0
8
70
78
0
5
3
8
0
14
86
100

hitrate: 0.125 hitrate: 0.109
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 0.42
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 5.56 0.09
Heidke skill score: -0.313 Heidke skill score: -0.336
true Heidke skill score: -0.191 true Heidke skill score: -0.082
Kuipers skill score: -0.313 Kuipers skill score: -0.336
true Kuipers skill score: -0.375 true Kuipers skill score: -0.280
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.133
threat score:
0.000 0.093 0.034
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.091 -0.156
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.043 -0.043
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.167
probability of detection:
0.000 0.556 0.036
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.900 0.600
samples: 16 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00