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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
0
5
5
0
4
1
5
0
4
9
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
5
51
56
0
4
1
5
0
9
55
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
23
23
0
0
38
38
0
31
8
38
0
31
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
0
8
80
88
0
6
2
8
0
14
86
100

hitrate: 0.077 hitrate: 0.094
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.25 0.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 6.22 0.09
Heidke skill score: -0.385 Heidke skill score: -0.359
true Heidke skill score: -0.500 true Heidke skill score: -0.119
Kuipers skill score: -0.385 Kuipers skill score: -0.359
true Kuipers skill score: -0.722 true Kuipers skill score: -0.399
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.077
threat score:
0.000 0.083 0.017
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.206 -0.258
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.055 -0.060
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.111
probability of detection:
0.000 0.556 0.018
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.911 0.800
samples: 13 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 20.31 %coverage: 100.00