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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
0
1
3
4
0
1
0
1
0
3
9
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
0
7
49
56
0
1
0
1
0
9
55
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
50
58
0
8
25
33
0
8
0
8
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
0
11
77
88
0
2
0
2
0
14
86
100

hitrate: 0.083 hitrate: 0.109
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.33 0.11
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 6.22 0.02
Heidke skill score: -0.375 Heidke skill score: -0.336
true Heidke skill score: -0.073 true Heidke skill score: -0.031
Kuipers skill score: -0.375 Kuipers skill score: -0.336
true Kuipers skill score: -0.167 true Kuipers skill score: -0.112
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.121 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.081
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.017 -0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.778 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.875 1.000
samples: 12 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 18.75 %coverage: 100.00