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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911-200001

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
19
21
0
1
3
4
0
0
0
0
0
3
22
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
19
21
0
2
41
43
0
0
0
0
0
4
60
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
76
84
0
4
12
16
0
0
0
0
0
12
88
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
30
33
0
3
64
67
0
0
0
0
0
6
94
100

hitrate: 0.040 hitrate: 0.031
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.33 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 10.75 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.440 Heidke skill score: -0.453
true Heidke skill score: 0.021 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: -0.440 Kuipers skill score: -0.453
true Kuipers skill score: 0.098 true Kuipers skill score: -0.092
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.044 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.094 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.016 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.953 0.000
samples: 25 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 39.06 %coverage: 100.00