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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911-200001

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
11
11
0
0
5
5
0
3
4
7
0
3
20
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
11
11
0
1
45
46
0
3
4
7
0
4
60
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
48
48
0
0
22
22
0
13
17
30
0
13
87
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
17
17
0
2
70
72
0
5
6
11
0
6
94
100

hitrate: 0.174 hitrate: 0.078
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.67 0.35
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 11.50 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.239 Heidke skill score: -0.383
true Heidke skill score: -0.168 true Heidke skill score: -0.081
Kuipers skill score: -0.239 Kuipers skill score: -0.383
true Kuipers skill score: -0.525 true Kuipers skill score: -0.592
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.174
threat score:
0.000 0.020 0.063
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.089 -0.123
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.041 -0.045
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.978 0.429
samples: 23 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 35.94 %coverage: 100.00