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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912-200002

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
0
1
7
8
0
1
11
12
0
3
23
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
0
2
44
46
0
1
11
12
0
4
60
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
19
23
0
4
27
31
0
4
42
46
0
12
88
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
8
9
0
3
69
72
0
2
17
19
0
6
94
100

hitrate: 0.462 hitrate: 0.203
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.67 0.52
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 11.50 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.192 Heidke skill score: -0.195
true Heidke skill score: 0.032 true Heidke skill score: -0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.192 Kuipers skill score: -0.195
true Kuipers skill score: 0.087 true Kuipers skill score: -0.150
threat score:
0.000 0.100 0.458
threat score:
0.000 0.042 0.180
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.008 0.029
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.019 -0.005
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.478
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.183
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.875 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.957 0.083
samples: 26 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 40.62 %coverage: 100.00