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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912-200002

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
22
23
0
2
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
3
23
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
22
23
0
3
38
41
0
0
0
0
0
4
60
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
85
88
0
8
4
12
0
0
0
0
0
12
88
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
34
36
0
5
59
64
0
0
0
0
0
6
94
100

hitrate: 0.077 hitrate: 0.047
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 10.25 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.385 Heidke skill score: -0.430
true Heidke skill score: 0.064 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: -0.385 Kuipers skill score: -0.430
true Kuipers skill score: 0.312 true Kuipers skill score: 0.058
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.071 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.453 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.011 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.927 0.000
samples: 26 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 40.62 %coverage: 100.00