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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
4
3
7
0
0
11
11
0
5
15
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
5
47
52
0
0
11
11
0
6
59
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
5
10
0
20
15
35
0
0
55
55
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
0
8
72
80
0
0
17
17
0
9
91
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.40 0.73
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 8.67 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: -0.131
true Heidke skill score: 0.500 true Heidke skill score: 0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: -0.131
true Kuipers skill score: 0.667 true Kuipers skill score: 0.112
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.733
threat score:
0.000 0.094 0.186
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.360 0.407
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.004 0.021
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.733
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.186
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.429 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.904 0.000
samples: 20 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 30.77 %coverage: 100.00