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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200012-200102

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
19
16
0
35
2
1
0
3
3
6
3
12
24
23
3
50

contingency table
fcst
obs
19
16
0
35
12
5
2
19
3
6
3
12
34
27
5
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
32
0
70
4
2
0
6
6
12
6
24
48
46
6
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
24
0
53
18
8
3
29
5
9
5
18
52
41
8
100

hitrate: 0.460 hitrate: 0.409
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.46 0.13 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.03 0.70 2.40
Heidke skill score: 0.190 Heidke skill score: 0.114
true Heidke skill score: 0.132 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.190 Kuipers skill score: 0.114
true Kuipers skill score: 0.148 true Kuipers skill score: 0.008
threat score:
0.475 0.040 0.250
threat score:
0.380 0.122 0.214
equitable threat score:
0.095 -0.016 0.202
equitable threat score:
0.030 -0.083 0.160
probability of detection:
0.792 0.043 1.000
probability of detection:
0.559 0.185 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.457 0.667 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.457 0.737 0.750
samples: 50 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 75.76 %coverage: 100.00