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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200101-200103

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
11
2
15
2
2
0
4
2
4
6
12
6
17
8
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
11
2
15
5
26
8
39
2
4
6
12
9
41
16
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
35
6
48
6
6
0
13
6
13
19
39
19
55
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
17
3
23
8
39
12
59
3
6
9
18
14
62
24
100

hitrate: 0.323 hitrate: 0.515
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.24 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.95 0.75
Heidke skill score: -0.016 Heidke skill score: 0.273
true Heidke skill score: 0.079 true Heidke skill score: 0.131
Kuipers skill score: -0.016 Kuipers skill score: 0.273
true Kuipers skill score: 0.098 true Kuipers skill score: 0.136
threat score:
0.105 0.105 0.429
threat score:
0.091 0.481 0.273
equitable threat score:
-0.056 -0.012 0.266
equitable threat score:
-0.002 0.060 0.162
probability of detection:
0.333 0.118 0.750
probability of detection:
0.222 0.634 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.867 0.500 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.867 0.333 0.500
samples: 31 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 46.97 %coverage: 100.00