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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
2
12
0
3
1
4
0
2
9
11
6
9
12
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
2
12
4
22
17
43
0
2
9
11
10
28
28
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
15
7
44
0
11
4
15
0
7
33
41
22
33
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
6
3
18
6
33
26
65
0
3
14
17
15
42
42
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.561
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.44 0.92
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.20 1.54 0.39
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.341
true Heidke skill score: 0.503 true Heidke skill score: 0.297
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.341
true Kuipers skill score: 0.526 true Kuipers skill score: 0.301
threat score:
0.500 0.300 0.643
threat score:
0.375 0.449 0.300
equitable threat score:
0.357 0.192 0.451
equitable threat score:
0.295 0.122 0.171
probability of detection:
1.000 0.333 0.750
probability of detection:
0.600 0.786 0.321
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.250 0.182
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.488 0.182
samples: 27 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 40.91 %coverage: 100.00