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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
2
8
1
0
2
3
3
4
6
13
7
7
10
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
2
8
4
21
20
45
3
4
6
13
10
28
28
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
13
8
33
4
0
8
13
13
17
25
54
29
29
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
3
12
6
32
30
68
5
6
9
20
15
42
42
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.455
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 0.43 1.30
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 1.61 0.46
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.182
true Heidke skill score: 0.024 true Heidke skill score: 0.104
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.182
true Kuipers skill score: 0.024 true Kuipers skill score: 0.103
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.353
threat score:
0.200 0.404 0.171
equitable threat score:
0.069 -0.096 0.050
equitable threat score:
0.130 0.058 0.016
probability of detection:
0.429 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.300 0.750 0.214
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 1.000 0.538
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.533 0.538
samples: 24 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 36.36 %coverage: 100.00