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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
6
0
1
1
2
2
9
6
17
2
14
9
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
6
3
19
21
43
2
9
6
17
5
32
29
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
16
8
24
0
4
4
8
8
36
24
68
8
56
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
3
9
5
29
32
65
3
14
9
26
8
48
44
100

hitrate: 0.280 hitrate: 0.379
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.14 1.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.20 1.34 0.59
Heidke skill score: -0.080 Heidke skill score: 0.068
true Heidke skill score: -0.042 true Heidke skill score: -0.101
Kuipers skill score: -0.080 Kuipers skill score: 0.068
true Kuipers skill score: -0.052 true Kuipers skill score: -0.101
threat score:
0.000 0.067 0.300
threat score:
0.000 0.339 0.150
equitable threat score:
-0.064 -0.009 -0.009
equitable threat score:
-0.043 -0.053 -0.045
probability of detection:
0.000 0.071 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.594 0.207
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.647
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.558 0.647
samples: 25 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 37.88 %coverage: 100.00