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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
2
7
3
4
6
13
0
2
1
3
3
11
9
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
2
7
5
25
26
56
0
2
1
3
5
32
29
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
22
9
30
13
17
26
57
0
9
4
13
13
48
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
3
11
8
38
39
85
0
3
2
5
8
48
44
100

hitrate: 0.217 hitrate: 0.394
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.33 1.18 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.40 1.75 0.10
Heidke skill score: -0.174 Heidke skill score: 0.091
true Heidke skill score: -0.225 true Heidke skill score: -0.081
Kuipers skill score: -0.174 Kuipers skill score: 0.091
true Kuipers skill score: -0.239 true Kuipers skill score: -0.080
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.091
threat score:
0.000 0.397 0.032
equitable threat score:
-0.100 -0.161 -0.018
equitable threat score:
-0.046 -0.060 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 0.364 0.111
probability of detection:
0.000 0.781 0.034
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.692 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.554 0.667
samples: 23 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 34.85 %coverage: 100.00