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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
4
7
0
4
5
9
0
5
1
6
2
10
10
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
4
7
3
26
24
53
0
5
1
6
5
32
29
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
5
18
32
0
18
23
41
0
23
5
27
9
45
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
6
11
5
39
36
80
0
8
2
9
8
48
44
100

hitrate: 0.318 hitrate: 0.439
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.50 0.90 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.40 1.66 0.21
Heidke skill score: -0.023 Heidke skill score: 0.159
true Heidke skill score: -0.031 true Heidke skill score: 0.004
Kuipers skill score: -0.023 Kuipers skill score: 0.159
true Kuipers skill score: -0.036 true Kuipers skill score: 0.004
threat score:
0.286 0.267 0.067
threat score:
0.200 0.441 0.029
equitable threat score:
0.214 -0.008 -0.141
equitable threat score:
0.155 0.009 -0.052
probability of detection:
1.000 0.400 0.100
probability of detection:
0.400 0.812 0.034
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.556 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.509 0.833
samples: 22 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 33.33 %coverage: 100.00