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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104-200106

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
1
4
0
1
2
3
0
7
10
17
3
8
13
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
1
4
0
9
35
44
0
7
10
17
3
16
46
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
4
17
0
4
8
13
0
29
42
71
13
33
54
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
2
6
0
14
54
68
0
11
15
26
5
25
71
100

hitrate: 0.583 hitrate: 0.338
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.38 1.31
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 2.75 0.37
Heidke skill score: 0.375 Heidke skill score: 0.008
true Heidke skill score: 0.248 true Heidke skill score: -0.025
Kuipers skill score: 0.375 Kuipers skill score: 0.008
true Kuipers skill score: 0.237 true Kuipers skill score: -0.037
threat score:
0.750 0.100 0.500
threat score:
0.750 0.176 0.189
equitable threat score:
0.714 0.000 0.073
equitable threat score:
0.738 -0.046 -0.050
probability of detection:
1.000 0.125 0.769
probability of detection:
1.000 0.562 0.217
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.667 0.412
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.795 0.412
samples: 24 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 36.92 %coverage: 100.00