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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104-200106

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
0
1
1
2
1
8
14
23
1
11
17
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
2
6
30
38
1
8
14
23
3
16
46
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
7
14
0
3
3
7
3
28
48
79
3
38
59
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
3
6
3
9
46
58
2
12
22
35
5
25
71
100

hitrate: 0.517 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.18 1.35
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 2.38 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.276 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.042 true Heidke skill score: -0.148
Kuipers skill score: 0.276 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.042 true Kuipers skill score: -0.205
threat score:
0.000 0.083 0.538
threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.255
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.021 0.041
equitable threat score:
-0.027 -0.087 -0.059
probability of detection:
0.000 0.091 0.824
probability of detection:
0.000 0.375 0.304
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.391
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.842 0.391
samples: 29 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 44.62 %coverage: 100.00