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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104-200106

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
3
4
0
4
9
13
2
1
0
3
2
6
12
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
3
4
1
14
43
58
2
1
0
3
3
16
46
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
15
20
0
20
45
65
10
5
0
15
10
30
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
5
6
2
22
66
89
3
2
0
5
5
25
71
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.215
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 2.17 0.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 3.62 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.177
true Heidke skill score: -0.151 true Heidke skill score: -0.053
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.177
true Kuipers skill score: -0.194 true Kuipers skill score: -0.091
threat score:
0.000 0.267 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.233 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.071 0.009 -0.136
equitable threat score:
-0.027 -0.006 -0.045
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.875 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.692 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.759 1.000
samples: 20 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 30.77 %coverage: 100.00