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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105-200107

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
7
8
0
7
9
16
1
7
16
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
14
27
49
0
7
9
16
8
21
36
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
0
29
33
0
29
38
67
4
29
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
22
42
75
0
11
14
25
12
32
55
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.354
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.14 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.33 0.44
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.031
true Heidke skill score: -0.364 true Heidke skill score: -0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.031
true Kuipers skill score: -0.356 true Kuipers skill score: -0.045
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.391
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.209
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.184 -0.135
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.046 0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.562
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.438
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.714 0.438
samples: 24 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 36.92 %coverage: 100.00