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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105-200107

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
3
0
0
7
7
1
1
9
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
8
21
28
57
0
0
7
7
8
21
36
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
9
9
9
9
9
27
0
0
64
64
9
9
82
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
12
32
43
88
0
0
11
11
12
32
55
100

hitrate: 0.727 hitrate: 0.431
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 3.00 0.78
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 2.71 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.591 Heidke skill score: 0.146
true Heidke skill score: 0.389 true Heidke skill score: 0.131
Kuipers skill score: 0.591 Kuipers skill score: 0.146
true Kuipers skill score: 0.553 true Kuipers skill score: 0.150
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.778
threat score:
0.000 0.368 0.194
equitable threat score:
-0.048 0.267 0.389
equitable threat score:
-0.014 0.067 0.097
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.778
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.194
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.632 0.000
samples: 11 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 16.92 %coverage: 100.00